Some Thoughts on Afghanistan

Today I was asked by the Canadian International Council to provide some feedback on one of their events I recently attended, a 'National Town Hall' on Canada's mission in Afghanistan. It was an interesting idea in that they teleconferenced five meetings across the country to a panel of experts in Waterloo, in such a way that we could all hear and see one another.

I post it here as it's a good summary of my thoughts on the situation in Afghanistan.

Is the approach by Canada and its international partners working in Afghanistan?

As this event clearly demonstrated to me, the security situation in Afghanistan is a mess. And without security, humanitarian and development efforts are unsustainable. Until the army, police, corrections and judicial system are reformed and work for everyday Afghans, I think many will continue to see the Karzai government – and the international forces that prop it up – as illegitimate and unable to provide for their human security. If the Taliban, warlords or other militias can provide that, Afghans will naturally support them out of basic human necessity, if not ideology.

Assess the Government of Canada’s communication strategy on Afghanistan. What can the government do to better reach out to Canadians on this issue, explaining the mission, the achievements made to date and the risks of failure?

I think a lot of Canadians are confused about why we’re in Afghanistan, and justifiably so because I don’t think many in government understand the reasons completely either. I think we all realize the risk that a lawless Afghanistan poses to the international community, but the ‘Why Canada?’ question has never been answered satisfactorily. When we first went there, and especially to Kandahar, I think it was to make an impression on NATO (certainly with an emphasis on America) and the wider international community, perhaps with too little thought on what a monumental undertaking it would become, or that it would be easier to rebuild than it has proven to be. Either way, it was a miscalculation that is politically painful to admit.

But I think politicians have also miscalculated the resolve of Canadians to stay in Kandahar. We’ve built our capacity to operate in this environment at a very high cost, and personally, witnessing Taliban jail breaks and acid attacks on schoolgirls only underscores the need to stay until 2011 and beyond. This is one issue that Liberals and Conservatives could easily work together on, having both spent a lot of political capital on the mission. I think an open admission that we’re in well over our heads would be a start (instead of deluding ourselves that real progress is still being made). The credibility we’ve gained by taking the lead in Kandahar needs to be leveraged against the Afghan government and our NATO partners to step their efforts up. If part of the original reason of this mission was to be taken more seriously on the international stage, we need to use that newfound clout to demand more from our allies.

Based on the panel discussion, how would you advise the Government of Canada and its NATO partners on the way forward in Afghanistan?

I’ve partially answered this above, but as many have noted, the Obama Administration has identified Afghanistan as their top priority in the war on terror and will make a serious re-investment of resources there. I think this is a tremendous opportunity for Canadian Forces who stand to benefit from the expected influx of troops, equipment and political will. But just as important will be (hopefully) increased diplomatic efforts in bringing the Taliban to the bargaining table and helping Pakistan’s wobbly civilian government to rein in jihadists in the FATAs. I think it would be prudent of the Canadian government to wait and see what policy changes America pursues, and if we can convince NATO to finally provide reinforcements. If there is considerable improvement over the next two years, I think we need to revisit the 2011 deadline. The risks of going into Kandahar have been incredibly high, but so will the rewards if we can see our commitment through.